Thursday, December 15, 2005

To Flop or Not

Have you ever wondered if that movie you're filming in your backyard is going to be a huge hit in Hollywood?  Yeah, that's right, me too...
 The program looks at several factors, including the movie's rating, competition from other films at the time of release, strength of the cast, genre, special effects, whether it is a sequel and the number of theatres it opens in. It weighs all these factors using a neural network and predicts whether or not the movie will be a box-office hit. The predictions are sorted into nine categories, from "flop" (less than US$1 million) to "blockbuster" (over US$200 million).
ars technica has an article on this software that will predict whether a movie will be a success based on data provided before the movie comes out. 
 
Uh-huh.  Sure it will. 
 
So if I spend $1,000 on a movie it's not going to make me over $100 million?  Is it sure about that?  What if I spend $10 million?  Will it be a success?  What if I make a movie like The Blair Witch Project?  Will it think it's going to flop based on the fact that it cost barely anything to make, and it was a horror?  I think it's a stupid program that won't lead to anything we don't already know as human beings.
 
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